Articles About Trading & Investing

Capital Wave Forecast: It Might Be the Time to Start Nibbling at Core, Long-Term Positions – But There Is One Caveat

0 | By Shah Gilani

We are not out of the woods by a longshot, but there’s money being put to work, selectively and tentatively, for sure, and that could mean more support for markets.

Last week, we saw net selling, mostly the result of investors exiting travel- and leisure-related stocks.

The Dow ended the week down 2.7%. The S&P was down 2.1%. And the Nasdaq Composite was off 1.53%. The good news in those losses is that they weren’t worse.

That may seem like a small consolation, but considering how volatile markets have been and how the weakening economy seems to be getting weaker, small losses, relatively speaking, in a week with horrendous economic news, is actually a positive…

JPMorgan Says We’ve Seen the Lows – This Is Why They Could Be Wrong

1 | By Shah Gilani

Last week’s Capital Wave Forecast called for “dire” market conditions, with a proviso. I said things could be “worse than that if we don’t see immediate relief, from all quarters where it must come from.”

Monday proved to be dire, at least for most of the day. Across the board, benchmarks made new intraday lows, and, in closing, posted new 52-week lows for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite.

But benchmarks closed off their intraday lows, a relief, considering Monday could have been a blowout.



Then, after the close Monday, everything changed.

The Market Looks Past 3.28 Million Newly Unemployed and Soars: Is That Crazy?

0 | By Shah Gilani

Initial jobless claims for the week ending March 21, 2020, was a record 3.28 million.

That’s 11.6 times more than the week before when 281,000 claims were filed, and 4.72 times the previous record of 695,000 Americans who were seeking benefits way back in the week ending October 2, 1982.

But that didn’t stop the Dow Jones Industrials Average from soaring 1,083.79 points, or 5.05%, to 22,552.17.

Is that crazy?

NO…and yes. Here’s why.

If We Don’t See Immediate Relief, This Week Could Be Worse Than Last – But There Is a Silver Lining

0 | By Shah Gilani

The market forecast for this week is the same as last week, “dire,” in fact, it’s probably worse than that if we don’t see immediate relief from all quarters where it must come from.

Regrettably, with the U.S. economy shutting down, none of this should be unexpected.

There are obvious and fundamental reasons we’re staring into a dark place; we’re facing an existential threat to mankind and the direct knock-on effect of that on markets.

That’s what COVID-10 hath wrought.

The Real Reason the Fed Cut Rates Again (And Why It’s NOT the Time to Start Buying)

3 | By Shah Gilani

The Forecast for this week is “dire.”

Investors have been sold a bill of goods by most analysts and the media, and worse, by their brokers and financial advisors.

The Capital Wave Forecast’s been warning subscribers that “this time is different,” and rallies, especially big jumps like we saw on Friday, are nothing but “dead cat bounces.”

It’s not just bad, it’s worse than people realize.

Making Sense of the Market’s New Highs (And Which Five Companies Could Grow Fastest Ahead)

0 | By Shah Gilani

Your Capital Wave Forecast for this week is “more of the same.”

That means the trend is still up and stocks want to keep going up.

And, they’re going to, unless the shadow of the coronavirus darkens the global outlook a lot more than it has.


But that still doesn’t account for the reason this rally’s been happening in the first place. Or what that means for five big tech companies (maybe more) that could see huge price action ahead

Kicking Off the “It’s All Good Until It Isn’t” Series with the Dark Side of a $5 Trillion Market

0 | By Shah Gilani

What’s not to like about ETFs?

Nothing, really.

At least until you dig a lot deeper into what everyone loves about them, how supposedly liquid they are, and what risks the “sponsors” and “authorized participants” who create, redeem, and trade them and all their underlying parts, really pose to the $5 trillion industry.

When it comes to ETFs, the truth is, it’s all good…until it isn’t

Boeing’s In Trouble – And Now’s the Perfect Time to Ask Whether You Should Buy, Sell, or Hold

0 | By Shah Gilani

The Boeing Co. (BA) is in trouble.

If it doesn’t get its troubled 737 Max planes certified by U.S. and international regulators and in the air by this summer, it’s dwindling cash and negative cash flow from operations will implode its stock.

But, unfortunately for them, the 787 Max isn’t Boeing’s only aircraft problem.

Regulators are investigating the company’s 787 Dreamliner over whistleblower claims that its oxygen systems don’t work, that managers let defective parts get through quality control checks, and that, when workers installed planes’ floorboards, they let three-inch-long razor-sharp shards of titanium fall the plane’s sensitive electronic equipment.

But, also, despite all its problems, Boeing isn’t going out of business. It’s too important to the American military and the U.S. economy.

But that doesn’t mean it’s not too big to fail (in terms of its stock price).

Investors should be asking themselves what to do with Boeing shares at a time like now: buy, sell, or hold?

Here’s what you need to do with the stock no matter what happens next

Coronavirus vs. SARS: Is This Time Different for the Market?

0 | By Shah Gilani

Investors almost always expect markets to react to current disruptions the same way they reacted to similar disruptions in the past.

We’re seeing that today with the spread of the coronavirus.

Already, analysts and market commentators are citing what happened in 2003, when spreading SARS deaths knocked the market down, but stocks ultimately ended the year considerably higher.

The question “is this time different?” is generally shrugged off because investors believe they know what markets did then and what they’ll probably do now because of it.

But what if this time is different?

What if investors aren’t looking at the big picture and how both China and the world have changed? What if investors forgot that something else lifted the market in 2003 and had nothing to do with SARS containment?

Here’s a more objective look back and why this time could be different

Capital Wave Forecast: Modern Monetary Theory – Fear Narrative or Far from Crazy

2 | By Shah Gilani

Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has the power to change the United States in more ways than anyone realizes.

As the essential economic plank of the Democrat party, MMT is about to explode out of the far left-leaning academic containment tower it’s been brewing in.

Here’s what it is, how it’s supposed to work, how it would change the U.S., and what you should do with your money if MMT replaces democratic capitalism as we know it.