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Nothing lasts forever, that includes bull markets.
The run we’re in being the longest bull market in history is going to end, everyone knows that.
But all that have tried to predict its end have obviously been wrong.
There are lots of studies that say investors can’t time the market, meaning you can’t be a successful investor if you jump in and out of the market every time you think it’s turning down or up again.
While I generally agree with that, only because making a move every time fear or greed grips or grabs us is a fool’s game, the truth is quite different.
Market Timing Is Everything
Timing the market, to me, is about riding bull markets, recognizing when they’ve ended and riding bear markets down until they’ve ended. That broad-based timing has made me wealthy. And I’m not alone.
The most successful traders and investors in history time the markets, like I do, not like clockwork.
And yes, you can include Warren Buffett in the list of successful billionaire market timers, along with George Soros, Carl Icahn, Steve Cohen, David Tepper, Michael Steinhardt, Paul Tudor Jones, Sir John Templeton, the list goes on. If you don’t know Warren Buffet times markets and trades, then you don’t know what you don’t know about Buffett and market timing.
Investment timing is about years and months and at certain junctures, sometimes weeks.
Think of good timing in terms of a calendar.
Timing in terms of days and weeks is for traders. Think of that kind of timing like clockwork.
Not that there isn’t a ton of money to be made trading short term, there is, and I’ve done that for decades. It’s just not for everyone.
That’s because most people don’t have the time to trade for a living like I do and all the other successful traders who make millions every year trading.
Smart investors make extraordinary gains in bull markets because bull markets can last a long time.
The current bull market we’re enjoying officially started on March 9, 2009.
I must admit, I didn’t call the beginning of this bull market on that date. No one did. We were still reeling from the financial crisis and the market looked like it was in Hades.
To verify my bona fides and my ability to time markets, I called the beginning of the bull market, on the record, in the media, “Stock Markets Move Past Gloom and Doom in Anticipation of the U.S. Economy’s Recovery” right here, on March 19, 2009. You see, correct timing is possible, and doable, and done all the time.
I’ve never called an end to the bull market. That’s because the way I time markets, it hasn’t ended.
This bull market turned 10 years old in March 2019. It’s now 128 months old.
The previous record was the 1990s bull market that started in October 1990 and lasted 113 months.
But, the duration of bull markets isn’t everything.
Even though the historic bull market we’re enjoying has seen the S&P 500 go from 676.53 on March 9, 2009 to 3,096.63 at yesterday’s close, for a gain of 357%, the 1990s bull market registered a 417% gain for the S&P 500.
Does that mean this bull market has more room to go higher? No, one has nothing to do with the other.
Every bull and bear market is unique. What’s important is knowing when they’re beginning and ending.
I called the beginning of this bull market and I’m going to call its ending.
On Tuesday I’ll tell you when that’s going to be and what to do about it.