We’re getting closer. To what, I’m not sure.
But we’re getting there.
Call it a crossroads. On the charts I look at, that crossroads looks like a pivot point.
The charts I follow and draw all kinds of lines across – and I’m talking about a lot of different charts that cover a lot of markets – are very, very similar in terms of exhibiting formations that show them coming to a point where we’re going to see either see breakouts or breakdowns.
Probably within a few weeks, but it could be any moment.
It’s fascinating, and it’s also scary. I’ve never seen so many different markets, asset classes, and instruments so correlated in terms of all heading to their own crossroads at very close to the same time.
Let me put it this way… If we had truly free markets, meaning no Viagra for limp politicians, no QE-er Fed interference, no LTR-ought-O trillion-euro giveaway in Europe, and no Commune-command and control of China’s economy, we’d get to these crossroads, and cross them one way or another, but at least we’d be somewhere honest.
But today markets are so mucked-up by political “push-me pull-ya” policies, the true fate that awaits us may be masked a good bit longer.
The Fed meets this week (aren’t they always meeting?), and we’ll all be glued to what words come out in their collective (which includes dissenting) voices.
Last time the market didn’t hear what it was longing for – more of that QE-sugar and spice that has been oh-so-nice – it summarily sank. Some of the crossroads we’re at may get dusted-up, depending on what the boys of stimulus say is ahead this summer.
Meanwhile, the Fed’s sorority sister, the ECBecause they can, will at some point come to their own crossroads. And they’ll have to say, we’re taking a break for a few weeks, or because they can, and likely will, shower Europe’s banks with more LTROh-so much free money.
Good old Spain is the new canary in the coalmine. Sure they sold a bunch of bonds last week, and their 10-year yield was around 5.74%, but by Friday it was knock, knock, knocking at 6%’s door again.
Delinquent loans at Spain’s banks are rising. Property prices fell another 3% last month. Unemployment is staggering and the country is reeling.
Will Spain be the straw that breaks all the charts’ backs?
France too is at a crossroads. By this evening, or tomorrow morning for you early-to-bed types, we’ll have a good idea whether St. Nick Sarkozy has a shot of being a two-term president, or whether his future will be on “Dancing With the Stars” (with his wife, of course).
If his principal challenger (although there are 10 candidates vying to lead France), Socialist Francois Hollande, gets ahead of St. Nick (there will be a runoff May 6 if no-one gets 50% of the vote, and no-one will), there could be fireworks across Europe.
Did I say we’re nearing a crossroads?
You know we’re approaching May, don’t you? And you know that old adage: “Go away in May,” which refers to setting aside your upside ambitions for the market and just going to the beach until September, well, that too is a signpost at the crossroads.
We’re getting shoved into a narrowing funnel.
Of course I try and let the charts speak to me, but I can’t help sometimes thinking the voice in my head is them whispering to me.
The charts are saying we’re almost at the crossroads; they’re not saying anything else.
I’m saying I’m not optimistic. But I have been wrong before. I can’t remember when, but I’m sure some of you will remember. And I hope I’m wrong and the fork in the road is for filet mignon.
Just be alert.
Oh yeah, and speaking of “alert”…
How About This for Sick?
How about finding out that since, oh maybe the 1960s, a lot (maybe one-fifth to one-third) of all cancer research has been predicated on the wrong inputs.
Did you hear about that? I’m amazed it hasn’t gotten more attention. Maybe it’s because it’s so insane and frightening that no-one wants to talk about what it really means.
As reported by The Wall Street Journal last week, it seems that a lot of the cancer research that’s been done in the last 50 years was done on cancer cells that weren’t what they were thought to be, because they were mislabeled.
In other words, research, years worth, has been done on, say, breast cancer, or pancreatic cancer, or lung cancer, and drugs were made based on all of this research.
And then we find out… Oh, that cancer I have in my lab, the one that came from someone with breast cancer, those cancer cells that we’re testing and working on to understand how they act and react to drugs and treatment protocols, well, it turns out… they weren’t breast cancer cells. They were some other kind of cancer cells.
Seriously, how flippin’ stupid is that? How is it possible that for so many years so much research has been done that we now know (well, we really don’t know because we’ll never be told the whole truth, EVER) was all wrong.
It’s impossible to calculate how many lives have been lost, how much time has been wasted, and how much money has been flushed down the drain.
I’m sick. But I have hope that all that research didn’t go to waste. Maybe the stuff that causes cancer doesn’t really cause cancer. Maybe cancer is caused by bad research.
Think of it: Maybe scientists have been researching the wrong stuff. Instead of trying to cure cancer, maybe they should try and cure stupidity… their own!